Result-Based Power Rating & Win-Loss Value

By Coach Baker

The two statistics introduced here, Win-Loss Value and Result-Based Power Rating (RBPR), are meant to measure the strength of each team’s performance versus their schedule and teams they have competed against.

Due to each statistic’s embedded bias in competition, it is not rational to measure the league (BCFL) in its entirety against each other, but rather within each team’s conference. However, the normalization of the RBPR does allow for a somewhat rational view of the rating as a whole (BCFL) but is still best suited to intraconference comparison.

WEEK NINE RBPR STANDINGS

WEEK NINE VALUE STANDINGS

Win-Loss Value

The Win-Loss Value (Value) of a team is based on the perceived value level of a win and the perceived value level of a loss.

Each opponent is placed into one of four tiers: Mountain West Conference (MWC), American Conference (AC), PAC-12 Conference (P12), or CPU.

The MWC provides the highest value for a win (1.00) and a loss (.30) due to the inclusion of the top-8 teams from the previous year. Therefore, a victory over an MWC opponent derives a team the largest value for a win and the largest value for a loss.

The following is the breakdown of win-value and loss-value for all four groups:

MWC: 1.00 for a win / .30 for a loss

AC: .95 for a win / .25 for a loss

P12: .90 for a win / .20 for a loss

CPU: .80 for a win / .10 for a loss

The value of each team’s wins and losses are totaled to create the team’s Win-Lose Value.

Result-Based Power Rating (RBPR)

The Result-Based Power Rating (RBPR) combines the Win-Loss Value (Value) of the teams a school has defeated and the value of the teams a school has lost to.

Formula: Calculation of the team Value of all Wins - (Loss Adjustment - team Value of all Losses)

Loss Adjustment: Each week the Lost Adjustment will be recalculated based on the highest current value of any team in the league. That value will be rounded up to the nearest whole number to establish that week's current Loss Adjustment.

The Loss Adjustment is created to ensure a team is "rewarded" better for losses against higher Value teams vs. teams with a lower value.

EX: School A currently has the highest Value at 4.55. Therefore, the Loss Adjustment for the week will be set at 5. If School B loses to School A, School B will be deducted .45 points from its RBPR (5-4.55=.45). If School B beats School A, it will gain 4.55 points to its RBPR.

CPU Value: The minimal Value a regular season can score is 2.45. Therefore, the CPU Value will be set at 2. The CPU Value is static and does not change for wins or losses in the RBPR.

Normalization of RBPR: The total value of the wins and losses accumulated is added to 100 to create the final RBPR product. This concept is similar, but not the same, as the plus (+) statistics found in baseball. This creates a better view of each team’s results across the league. A team with an even value of wins and loses would have a RBPR of 100.

Final Note: A team’s Value will fluctuate throughout the season. Therefore, a team’s value to a school’s RBPR will adjust from week-to-week. As a past opponent improves, so too will its effect on a team’s RBPR; the inverse is true, as well, when a past opponent’s record gets worse throughout the season.

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